What Are MY Risks?
So, if I was a 35 year old husband and father of two young kids and my wife and I had just lost our jobs due to this Corona/Chinese virus pandemic what do you think I would be thinking? I mean, I sit at home because my Beloved Supreme Leader Governor has ordered everything closed and I watch the pundits, media, and doctors on TV all saying we’re all going to die. But all these experts tiptoe around the real question: What are the chances of me or a one of my family getting the virus and dying?
I learned a long time ago you don’t trust politicians. They want power and influence and to win the next election. The doctors and experts on TV enjoy their celebrity and always paint a picture of gloom and doom. So I started figuring my own risk. You know, using that “science” and “data” stuff my beloved Supreme Leader Governor likes to tout. I picked up my old 9th grade math book, from the days when we used books and actually had to learn math (a long time ago). I found a simple equation to estimate my chances and risk. I use it a lot. If you want to estimate the probability of getting the virus (event A) AND then dying (event B) you use the equation: Probability of A and B equals the probability of A times the probability of B given A (if you’re curious it is written P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A)). It is easier than it sounds and you can use the data your Supreme Beloved Leader Governor provides. Here is my example.
Based on where I live and the rate of positive results of testing I estimate the chance of me getting the virus is 8% (.08). Based on local mortality rates and my age IF I get the virus my chance of dying is 7% (.07) (unless I lived in certain states then those Beloved Supreme Leader Governors would have, because I am old, scooped me up and locked me in a nursing home surrounded with infected people). Therefore my estimated risk is simply .08 x .07which equals .0056 or 0.56%. So I believe I have pretty good odds. I have a 99.44% chance of not getting the virus and dying!! I also will bet that 35 year old has even better odds and his kids have almost no chance of getting the virus and dying at all. My estimate for kids is about a 99.99% chance of making it.
If that 35 year od young guy did this how do you think he would feel? Really? We lose 38 million jobs, wreck our economy, close schools, destroy lives, deny medical treatments for things like cancer, and trample on rights and liberty? For these odds?
I know how I feel. Notice no one on TV is providing this info. The big story now is masks and maybe there will be another outbreak this fall.
I’m an old guy and I don’t get it.